Isaiah 29:6 promises there will be “thunder and earthquake and great noise, whirlwind and tempest.” Even so, weather forecasting is difficult. When, where, and how will a life-threatening tornado or dangerous hurricane strike? To make matters more challenging even still, scientists are finding something much tougher to predict than the next big storm: the human mind.
The human factor complicates weather warnings. People react in unpredictable ways to danger. So when forecasters expect severe weather, they face a difficult choice—to tell or not to tell? An early heads-up could help people prepare. But too much advance warning can backfire.
One weather study made some interesting observations. With an hour's notice of a tornado, many tried to flee, putting them in the path of danger. But with only 15 minutes' notice, they sought shelter.
Where’s the warning sweet spot? Weather forecasters are still trying to figure that out. They’ve mastered physics. But weather scientists need a little human psychology too.
Forecasters worry about "cry wolf" syndrome—listeners’ tuning out warnings because they’ve heard them so often. They also fear overreaction, especially with tornadoes. People sometimes leave much safer buildings and head to their cars—the last place you want to be in a tornado.
People also regularly ignore the flood advice, "Turn around, don't drown.” They endanger themselves driving on submerged streets.
Kim Klockow is a scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. She studied both meteorology (weather science) and human behavior. She helps the federal government find the right mix of social and physical sciences in its warnings. Klockow calls “studying humans infinitely harder than studying physical processes."
In the past, forecasters often erred on the side of scaring people. Common wisdom said too much warning was better than not enough.
"Everyone had always thought that increasing lead time was good," Klockow says. Now forecasters tend toward not pressing the panic button, especially since information gets magnified via social media.
Last spring, forecasters were 30 percent sure that severe storms were developing. But the bad weather was a week away. Rick Smith at the National Weather Service knew he couldn’t—and shouldn’t—offer specifics that far out.
Instead Smith issued what he calls "a heads-up phase." He didn’t want to frighten anyone. But he did want to remind everyone that it was, after all, springtime on the southern Plains. He began suggesting it was time to buy a weather radio and clean out the storm shelter.
As storms got closer, warnings got more specific and more urgent. High winds, baseball-size hailstones, and twisting tornadoes touched states all over the nation’s mid-section. Thanks to weather forecasters, citizens who heeded take-cover advice were ready.
